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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent also-rans rising together. Under an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still