Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
